ROVE ON POLLS

Posted at 7:14 a.m. ET

Karl Rove, with his vast knowledge of politics, cautions us on interpreting the polls, while conceding that McCain is in a tough place.

Some polls are sponsored by reputable news organizations, others by publicity-eager universities or polling firms on the make. None have the scientific precision we imagine.

But they sure affect our ability to have a nice day.

Polls can reveal underlying or emerging trends and help campaigns decide where to focus. The danger is that commentators use them to declare a race over before the votes are in. This can demoralize the underdog's supporters, depressing turnout. I know that from experience.

The experience:

On election night in 2000 Al Hunt -- then a columnist for this newspaper and a commentator on CNN -- was the first TV talking head to erroneously declare that Florida's polls had closed, when those in the Panhandle were open for another hour. Shortly before 8 p.m. Eastern Standard Time, Judy Woodruff said: "A big call to make. CNN announces that we call Florida in the Al Gore column."

Mr. Hunt and Ms. Woodruff were not only wrong. What they did was harmful. We know, for example, that turnout in 2000 compared to 1996 improved more in states whose polls had closed by the time Ms. Woodruff all but declared the contest over. The data suggests that as many as 500,000 people in the Midwest and West didn't bother to vote after the networks indicated Florida cinched the race for Mr. Gore.

Woodruff, in particular, is a bitter liberal partisan, whose behavior on the air has sometimes been problematical.

Polls have proliferated this year in part because it is much easier for journalists to devote the limited space in their papers or on TV to the horse-race aspect of the election rather than its substance. And I admit, I've aided and abetted this process.

In the campaign's final week, though, the candidates can offer little new substance, so attention turns to the political landscape, and there's no question Mr. McCain is in a difficult place.

The last national poll that showed Mr. McCain ahead came out Sept. 25 and the 232 polls since then have all shown Mr. Obama leading. Only one time in the past 14 presidential elections has a candidate won the popular vote and the Electoral College after trailing in the Gallup Poll the week before the election: Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Well, there was the Reagan exception.  We can hope, can't we?  And remember the one before those 14 elections - Harry Truman in 1948.  He was all but written off by the "experts."

But the question that matters is the margin. If Mr. McCain is down by 3%, his task is doable, if difficult. If he's down by 9%, his task is essentially impossible. In truth, however, no one knows for sure what kind of polling deficit is insurmountable or even which poll is correct. All of us should act with the proper understanding that nothing is yet decided.

Yup.  Correct.

October 30, 2008.      Permalink          

DEFINE A REPUBLICAN

Posted at 7:03 a.m. ET

Mr. Obama announces his intentions regarding his cabinet:

SUNRISE, Florida (Reuters) - U.S. presidential candidate Barack Obama said on Wednesday he would include Republicans in his Cabinet if he wins the election.

That's what I was afraid of.  It may sound "bipartisan" to say you want Republicans in your cabinet, but how do you define Republican?  It really depends on the issue.  My fear is that Obama, if elected, will name someone like Chuck Hagel to a key foreign-policy post.   In terms of his views, that's like naming George McGovern.

"I'm not going to get into details," Obama said, but he added that national security policy, in particular, should be nonpartisan.

Other people mentioned as possible defense secretary picks in an Obama administration include former Navy Secretary Richard Danzig and Sen. Chuck Hagel, a Republican senator from Nebraska.

Whoops.  There's the golden name.  Hagel.  Another name floated is Richard Lugar of Indiana.  Lugar, like Hagel is no Republican on foreign policy.  He's one of the Senate's great marshmallows, not someone you send into battle against foreign enemies.

Be careful of "bipartisanship."  Some of the bi's were never Republican partisans.

Some analysts have speculated that during the transition period between November 4 and January 20, when a successor to President George W. Bush will take office, the new president-elect would move quickly to fill key jobs such as Treasury Secretary, Defense Secretary and Secretary of State. 

That will be the first test of the media in covering an Obama presidency.  If Obama names RINOs (Republicans in Name Only), will the media call him on it, or praise his willingness to "cross the aisle" to get talent. 

Also, be wary of the pick for attorney general.  He or she will be a key figure in deciding whether to continue investigations already begun into ACORN, and whether to resist leftist demands to conduct endless probes into the Bush administration.

Let's hope there's an upset next Tuesday, and we don't have to worry about this.

October 30, 2008.